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As we approach the midpoint of the NFL season, there have been several surprises among the NFL landscape including: the undefeated 49ers, the dominating Patriots, and the struggling Bears, Browns, Rams, and the “Brees-less” New Orleans Saints 6-1 start.
As we enter Week 8 of the NFL season, there are 4 games that I like going into the weekend to put some money on. All odds are based off DraftKings Sportsbook.
Redskins at Vikings (-14.5) O/U 42
We start off the slate this week with a Thursday night game between the terrible Washington Redskins and the Minnesota Vikings. When looking at this game, the spread quickly jumps out to everyone as 14.5 point spread for a Thursday night game. This game will keep most people away from the Vikings, BUT I love this spread. The Redskins are bad….and I mean BAD! I think this line could go all the way up to 17 before kickoff, so grabbing it early may be key. There are several homecomings this weekend as well with Adrian Peterson and Kirk Cousins facing against their former teams. The Vikings will likely be missing one of their key wide receivers, Adam Theilen, out with a hamstring injury. Since Mike Zimmer has been coach at Minnesota, the Vikings have been profitable against the spread. Zimmer has a “by the book” game management process keeps his team disciplined.
As Vikings coach, Zimmer is an astonishing 19-2-1 (90% winning percentage) against the spread in non-divisional home favorites (Bet Labs). On the other hand, Washington is a sinking ship. They have recently fired their coach, they are without a reliable quarterback, and they might as well start preparing for the 2020 NFL Draft.
My Pick: I usually stay away from Thursday night games due to the shortness of the week and sloppy play… but with the Redskins traveling to the Midwest and Zimmer’s impeccable record ATS against non-divisional opponents, I will be laying the 14.5 points and taking the Vikings in a route. (Bet: 2 units to win 1.82 units)
Seattle (-5.5) at Atlanta O/U 54
When I look at the Week 8 slate and see a struggling Falcons team with coaching question marks, and an injured Matt Ryan going against a Seahawks team who was embarrassed at home against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens 30-16, I can’t help but crave to get in on this action! Seattle opened at a (-3.5) point favorite early Monday. We will have to watch as the week progresses whether the right ankle of Falcons QB Matt Ryan will be good to go Sunday. If not, Matt Schaub will be under center for the Falcons, who have lost five straight since winning opening weekend. The Falcons most consistent wide receiver, Mohammad Sanu, was traded Tuesday to the Patriots for a 2020 2nd and 3rd round picks.
Russell Wilson is playing like an MVP candidate this season, throwing for 1,704 yards and an astonishing 15 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Seahawks offense is ranked 5th, averaging 399 yards per game while the Falcons defense sits 26th overall, allowing 388 yards per game. Russell Wilson should have a field day with this Falcon’s defense, similar to what Jared Goff did this past weekend. Series: The Seahawks lead the all-time series 10-8 over the Falcons.
The Pick: I think Russell Wilson continues to have an MVP like performance against this “swiss cheese” Falcons defense, and the Seahawks easily cover the 5.5 points likely winning by 10 points. (Bet: 1 unit to win 0.91 units)
Denver at Indianapolis (-6) O/U 43.5
The AFC South first placed Indianapolis Colts stay at home this week hosting the Denver Broncos. The Colts picked up a huge AFC South win against rival Houston Texans while the Broncos lost an ugly game at home last Thursday against an Maholm-less Chiefs team. The Colts will be wearing their “Color Rush” uniforms this Sunday in a “blue out” game if something added was needed for this game. Broncos star WR Emmanuel Sanders was traded Tuesday to the 49ers, therefore the Broncos are without their star receiver, which ups productivity for Courtland Sutton and others.
This game opened up as Colts 4.5-point favorite, and now has worked its way up to 6. I will be grabbing this game at anything less than a touchdown for the Colts. I like it all the way up to Colts -6.5
The Pick: I like the Colts at home with anything less than a touchdown. With it currently at 6, I will be all over it! (Bet: 3 units to win 2.73 units)
Packers (-5.5) at Chiefs O/U 48
Back when the NFL schedule was released, this was one game circled by sports fans everywhere as Aaron Rodgers traveled to Arrowhead to take on Maholmes and the high-power offense of the Chiefs. Fast-forward six months later and the game has lost a little of its lust with the Maholmes injury last week against Denver. Maholmes avoided long term injury and will likely be out 3 weeks. Cue Matt Moore. Yes, the same Matt Moore who was destroyed in the NFL Playoffs playing for the Dolphins when they took on the Steelers in the AFC Wild Card a few years ago.
So, when looking into this game, the spread opened up on Monday with the Packers being a 4.5-point favorite, and as of Wednesday, the spread moved to 5.5 points. I do like the Packers anything less than a touchdown, but what intrigues me more is the over/under of 48 points. Historically, the Chiefs have scored 3.3 points less at home than they do on the road. Arrowhead Stadium has been a tough place to score, for both home and road teams. When Andy Reid took over in Kansas City in 2013, no home team made bettors more money than the Chiefs with a 34-19-1 record (64% winning percentage) against the under (including playoffs). With Maholmes out with a knee injury, this makes the under play more intriguing to bet.
My Pick: Under 48, it’s hard to score in Arrowhead and without Maholmes, this keeps the score just below the 48. (Bet 2 units to win 1.82 units)
RECAP: Vikings -14.5 , Seahawks -5.5, Colts -6, Chiefs/Packers UNDER 48
Good luck this week and happy betting!
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